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2023, № 103

UDC: 338.431.6:631.115
GSNTI: 06.52.35

Forecast model of the development of the agrarian structure of the agro-industrial complex of Southern Russia

The article considers a predictive model of the development of the agrarian structure as a basis for improving the state management of agriculture. The construction of forecast pictures of the development of the agrarian structure makes it possible to identify trends, correlations and disproportions of its development, to identify restrictive factors and the need for resources, priority areas, tasks and targets for managerial decision-making to improve the system of public administration and regulation of the agricultural sector of Russia. Studies show that a stable system of multicultural agriculture has been formed in the agricultural production of the country, including various forms of agribusiness. To build an effective system of public administration of the agro-industrial complex, it is necessary to understand the possible picture of the development of the agrarian structure in the coming years. To this end, the author has proposed a model of the forecast picture of the development of the agrarian structure of the Southern Federal District and the Rostov region. The results of forecast calculations indicate the preservation of the existing trend of agrarian structures enlargement and active development of peasant (farm) holdings with a probable share in agricultural production - more than 30%. For certain types of products, the leadership of personal subsidiary farms will remain. This indicates the significant contribution of small forms of agricultural management to the agricultural sector and the need to take into account the interests of both large and small agribusiness in the elaboration and implementation of strategies and programs for the development of the agricultural sector.
Keywords: Agro-industrial complex, forecast model, agrarian structure, development trends, multiformity, state regulation.
DOI: 10.21515/1999-1703-103-45-51

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Authors:

1. Isaeva Olga Viktorovna, PhD in Economics, FSBSI "Federal Rostov Agricultural Research Centre".