Труды Кубанского государственного аграрного университета

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2018, № 73

UDC: 574.2:581.5
GSNTI: 68.35.37:34.35.15

Phenological models the timing of flowering Thymus vulgaris L. and Thymus mastichina L. in the Southern coast of the Crimea

Mathematical models are the basic tools to predict the occurrence of phenological events, such as leaf unfolding, flowering, or maturing of fruits. This study is a first attempt to evaluate the ability of four phenological models pure forcing and combined chilling-forcing (CF) to predict beginning of flowering for Thymus vulgaris L. and Thymus mastichina L. in the Southern coast of the Crimea. One of the approaches was pure forcing model (F) and another a modified GDD-approach included photoperiod (Ph) and the remaining two models were combined parallel and sequential chilling-forcing (CF) models. The starting date of temperature accumulation, base temperature and the forcing requirements were optimized on the basis of observed data. The starting date of the models was set to 1 November (CF), 1 January (Ph) and 1 February (F). Phenological observations and temperature data in the period 1970-2017 for Th. vulgaris and 1980-2010 for Th. mastichina were used to fit these models. Root mean square errors (RMSE) between modelled and observed Thymus flowering data varied from 6.3 to 7.5 days for Th. vulgaris and from 5.4 to 6.3 for Th. mastichina. The average base temperature, found by CF models for beginning of flowering for Th. vulgaris are 4.6 and 4.9оC and for Th. mastichina - 4.8 and 5.0оC.
Keywords: Phenology, dates of flowering, Phenology models, Thymus vulgaris L, Thymus mastichina L
DOI: 10.21515/1999-1703-73-112-118


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  1. Korsakova Svetlana Pavlovna, Phd in biology, Senior Research Scientist of the Laboratory phytomonitoring, Federal State Institution of Science "Order of the Labour Red Banner Nikita Botanical Gardens - National Scientific Center Russian Academy of Science".