Труды Кубанского государственного аграрного университета

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2017, № 69

UDC: 330.131.7:316.422:338.436.33
GSNTI: 06.73.07

Analysis of enterprise risks and possible measures of their decrease by innovative business projects in Agrarian and Industrial Complex

Risk is an integral part of economic, political and social life of the community, inevitably accompanying all the scope and direction of any organization functioning in the conditions of the market. That is why the analysis of business risks remains relevant at the present time. The article based on the review of various literature sources is devoted to the models that received the most widespread and developed using the tools of discriminant analysis. To assess and predict the level of the crisis situation of the company the following crisis forecast models of Altman, Saifullin and Kadykov, Lis, Beaver, Taffler, scientists Irkutsk economic academy, were applied. Insurance may be considered one of the possible measures to minimize risks in agriculture. The insurance premiums and the effectiveness of crop insurance of sowings with state support were calculated with various percentage of yield losses without the participation of the insurer in risk, and with different shares of participation of the insurer in risk. The analysis showed that although the greatest amount of insurance compensation can be obtained with a minimum percentage of participation of the policyholder in the risk, it is advisable to insure with the size of a deductible equal to 40 % as the required frequency of occurrence of the insured event in this is minimum. Another possible trend in agricultural production risk reducing is the expansion of the product range to reduce the potential loss of revenue from the prevailing unfavorable climatic conditions and market conditions. To reduce the risks an investment project is proposed for construction of rabbit farm. The basic technical and economic indicators of rabbit farm with a population of 2304 rabits and a slaughterhouse are calculated, as well as of profitability threshold of the project.
Keywords: Risk, business activity, crisis-forecast models, insurance, investment project
DOI: 10.21515/1999-1703-69-24-29


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  1. Gurnovich Tatyana Genrikhovna, DSc in Economics, Professor of the Department of Production and Innovation Activities, Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education “I.T. Trubilin Kuban State Agrarian University”.
  2. Mozhegova Valentina Dmitrievna, graduate student, Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education “I.T. Trubilin Kuban State Agrarian University”.