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2021, № 92

UDC: 338.27:631.559
GSNTI: 06.35.35

The stability of the gross harvest as a result of planning the structure of sown areas, taking into account the forecast of grain yield

The stability of agricultural production is customary to be considered as the ability to withstand various adverse effects of weather conditions, production and economic, technological, organizational, and other factors of the external and internal environment for the production, implementation and results of production and financial activities. The practical significance of assessing the sustainability of agricultural production is to be able to control the gross collection and the volume of product sales, revenue and financial result in order to ensure the maximum possible effect in the prevailing weather conditions. This contributes to how many years of experience of agricultural organizations of the Krasnodar Territory showed, the use of forecasts of crop yields in planning the structure of sowing areas in the forecast period, covering from one to three to five years after the reporting year. In the practical activity of the agricultural organization, various types of production sustainability are possible: steadily high gross grain harvest - the most acceptable positive result of growing grain crops; A steadily average year of gross grain harvest is acceptable, but inferior to a positive assessment of a steadily high production volume; Sustainably low gross collection of grain crops, which does not meet the potential possibilities of a business entity, its internal production needs, consumer demand; Unstable production, formed by the influence of favorable weather conditions and other factors aimed at an increase in gross collection, including planning the structure of sowing areas, taking into account the prognosis of the yield of each grain culture, characterized positively; Unstable production, created by influence, mainly unfavorable weather conditions, is considered as a negative state of an objective property. The article is analyzed and an assessment of the sustainability of the production of grain crops in the Cuban Education for 2000-2009 is analyzed. And 2010-2020, the trends in the level of stability of the area of sowing, yield and gross collection of winter wheat, winter barley, corn on grain, rice, in general grain crops.
Keywords: Grain crops, methods of analysis, gross collection, sowing area, yield, stability, trend.
DOI: 10.21515/1999-1703-92-64-69

References:

1. Петрик, Г. Ф. Использование прогнозов урожайности в планировании структуры посевных площадей / Г. Ф. Петрик, А. Г. Прудников, Т. В. Логойда / Труды Кубанского государственного аграрного университета. - 2019. - № 1 (76). - С. 61-66.
2. Прудников, А. Г. Краткосрочный прогноз производства зерна: монография / А. Г. Прудников. - М.: Росгропромиздат, 1989. - 120 с.
3. Трубилин, А. И. Методология среднесрочного прогноза урожайности и производства продукции растениеводства: монография / А. И. Трубилин, Г. Ф. Петрик, А. Г. Прудников, Т. В. Логойда. - Краснодар: КубГАУ, 2019. - 166 с.

Authors:

1. Prudnikov Anatoliy Grigorievich, DSc in Economics, professor, Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education “I.T. Trubilin Kuban State Agrarian University”.
2. Petrik Galina Fedorovna, Phd in Agriculture, associate Professor, Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education “I.T. Trubilin Kuban State Agrarian University”.
3. Logoida Timofey Vladimirovich, Phd in Agriculture, associate Professor, Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education “I.T. Trubilin Kuban State Agrarian University”.