Труды Кубанского государственного аграрного университета


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2019, № 76

UDC: 338.27:631.559
GSNTI: 06.35.35

The use of yield forecasts in planing the structure of sowing areas

The Article summarizes the experience of practical use of yield forecasts in the justification of the structure of acreage of agricultural crops in the farm "Kuban"; the results of the study of methodological approaches to forecasting yields, based on the account of three-year and four-year cycles in the dynamics of yields. Approbation of the author's model of forecasting the yield of crops on the materials of the farm "Kuban" showed its acceptability as a tool to ensure the minimum error of the forecast yield of winter wheat and barley, rice and sunflower. Less successful forecasts were obtained for oats and soybeans, and for corn for grain-unsatisfactory when testing the model according to data for 2012-2018.
Keywords: Grain crops, sunflower, soybean, actual yield, projected yield, evaluation of the accuracy of quality forecasts
DOI: 10.21515/1999-1703-76-61-66

References:

  1. Петрик, Г. Ф. Прогнозирование урожайности сельскохозяйственных культур: рабочая тетрадь / Г. Ф. Петрик, А. Г. Прудников, Т. В. Логойда - Краснодар: КубГАУ, 2017. - 49 с.
  2. Трубилин, А. И. Прогнозирование урожайности сельскохозяйственных культур: учеб. пособие / А. И. Трубилин, Г. Ф. Петрик, А. Г. Прудников. - Краснодар: КубГАУ, 2017. - 94 с.
  3. Прудников, А. Г. Краткосрочный прогноз производства зерна: монография / А. Г. Прудников. - М.: Росагропромиздат, 1989. - 120 с.

Authors:

  1. Petrik Galina Fedorovna, Phd in Agriculture, associate Professor, Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education “I.T. Trubilin Kuban State Agrarian University”.
  2. Prudnikov Anatoly Grigorievich, DSc in Economics, Professor, Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education “I.T. Trubilin Kuban State Agrarian University”.
  3. Logoyda Timofey Vladimirovich, Phd in Agriculture, associate Professor, Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education “I.T. Trubilin Kuban State Agrarian University”.